This paper used system dynamics model to draw causal loop diagram and establish flow stock model, with economy, population, housing, environment, public administration as urban land use factors, and tests their simulated results from 2004 to 2018, and simulates the urban system from 2018 to 2033. Results show a discordant population-land relation will continue to exist in Changchun. Constructed area per capita increases by 47.9% from 2019 to 2033 in Changchun,and total population will be up to 4.483 92 million in Changchun downtown in 2033. Population migration is sensitive to educational resources, rather than gross value of industrial output and medical resource inputs. In Changchun city's land use structure, housing land proportion will be enlarged to 32.88%; industrial land proportion will be diminished to 18.33%; urban transportation land proportion will be first increased and then decreased, and park green land proportion will be stably at 4.33% in 2033. Under scenarios of increasing educational expenses and increasing industrial growth rate, construction area per capita decreases by 5.47% and 3.97%, which mitigates the population-land conflict. Under scenarios of increasing industrial population proportion and increasing housing growth rate, construction area per capita increases by 3.96% and 0.84%, which will not change the situation of population urbanization speed less than land urbanization speed. This paper presents suggestions on improving public administrative services, decreasing housing costs, and stabilizing urban population and attracting talents to realize a balance among urban economy, society and land use.

To control industrial carbon emission on purpose, this paper calculates the Shaanxi's industrial carbon emission in 2008-2017 along with its characters, and applies GDIM to study the industrial carbon emission factors, such as industrial economic level, energy consumption and population, which have been decomposed to measure their contribution ratio. Results suggest that Shaanxi's industrial carbon emission is positively related to consumed energy intensity, industrial carbon emission per capita, unit GDP carbon emission, industrial GDP, energy consumption and energy consumption growth, rising carbon emission is closely connected to GDP growth and increment of energy consumption. Change of industrial GDP per capita induces a constraint effect on carbon emission change. This paper presents suggestions for Shaanxi's low-carbon development.